Item 1A. Risk Factors.
(dollars in millions)
We face a number of risks that could materially and adversely affect our business, results of operations, cash flow, liquidity, or financial condition. A full discussion of our risk factors can be found in Part I Item 1A. Risk Factors of Alcoa Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. The information below includes additional risks relating to Alcoa’s proposed transaction to acquire South32 Limited’s (South32) equity interests in certain bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets (the Transaction), pursuant to the Umbrella Implementation Deed (the Deed), dated as of June 30, 2026.
The Transaction may be delayed or may not be completed, each of which could adversely affect Alcoa’s business, financial condition, results of operations, or stock price.
Completion of the Transaction is subject to various conditions precedent, including regulatory and governmental approvals, approvals for listing of the Alcoa common stock and quotation of CHESS Depositary Interests (CDIs) to be issued in the Transaction, and other customary conditions specified in the Deed.
The regulatory and governmental approval process may take longer than expected, approvals may not be obtained, or approvals may be obtained only subject to terms that are not acceptable to Alcoa or South32 or consistent with the terms of the Deed. Alcoa and South32 may waive certain of these conditions precedent and also have termination rights under the Deed, in certain circumstances. If the Deed is terminated or any condition precedent is not satisfied or, where waivable, waived, the Transaction will not be completed.
Alcoa expects to incur significant costs associated with the Transaction. Alcoa’s fees and expenses related to the Transaction include financial advisor fees, filing fees, legal and accounting fees, and regulatory fees.
If the Transaction is delayed or not completed, Alcoa may not realize the expected benefits of the Transaction and may be adversely affected by negative reactions from financial markets, customers, suppliers, employees, or other business partners; the incurrence of significant transaction-related costs, including costs that are payable regardless of whether the Transaction is completed; potential termination fee obligations; and litigation relating to the Transaction.
The issuance of shares of Alcoa common stock dilutes the ownership position of Alcoa’s existing stockholders and the price of Alcoa common stock may be affected.
The consideration payable in the Transaction includes shares of Alcoa common stock (which may, in whole or in part, be delivered in the form of Alcoa CDIs) representing approximately 6 percent of Alcoa’s outstanding shares post issuance. Consequently, the Company’s existing stockholders will own a smaller proportion of Alcoa common stock following the completion of the Transaction.
The issuance of new shares of Alcoa common stock (which may, in whole or in part, be delivered in the form of Alcoa CDIs) could adversely affect the market price of Alcoa common stock. In addition, South32 shareholders, who will receive Alcoa common stock, or Alcoa CDIs (as the case may be),may decide to sell some or all of their shares or CDIs following completion of the Transaction, and South32 may ultimately effect a sale or distribution of the Alcoa common stock or CDIs it receives, each of which could have the effect of depressing the market price for Alcoa common stock. The price of Alcoa common stock and CDIs may fluctuate significantly in the days following the completion of the Transaction, including as a result of factors over which the Company has no control.
The market price of Alcoa common stock and Alcoa CDIs following completion of the Transaction may also be affected by a variety of factors, including whether expected benefits of the Transaction are realized; transaction-related costs are greater than expected; or Alcoa’s financial position, results of operations, or cash flows meet the expectations of investors and financial analysts. Consequently, the market price of Alcoa common stock or CDIs may decline following completion of the Transaction.
Alcoa may not realize the intended benefits of the Transaction, and integration may disrupt Alcoa’s current plans or operations.
Alcoa may not successfully integrate the acquired operations or otherwise realize the expected benefits of the Transaction. Integration may result in operational disruptions, increased costs, delays in realizing expected synergies, or financial and operating performance that differs from expectations. As a result, the Transaction may not be accretive to earnings per share, improve Alcoa’s balance sheet position, or enhance Alcoa’s ability to generate additional free cash flow.
Integration efforts may also divert management’s attention from existing operations; disrupt customer, supplier, and other business relationships; present challenges in integrating employees, information technology, communications, and other systems; result in previously unknown liabilities; or require unforeseen expenses.
Indebtedness incurred to finance the Transaction may increase available capital and credit-related risks.
During the third quarter of 2026, the Company issued $2,600 of senior notes. The Company intends to use the proceeds, together with cash on hand, to fund the approximately $3,100 cash portion of the consideration for the Transaction as well as related fees and expenses. The increased indebtedness may, among other impacts, reduce Alcoa’s flexibility to respond to changing business and economic conditions, increase borrowing costs, and limit Alcoa’s ability to pursue strategic opportunities, further increasing capital and credit-related risks. In addition, risks, uncertainties, and events beyond Alcoa’s control could affect its ability to comply with applicable covenants, and failure to comply could result in a default, trigger cross-default provisions, permit lenders to accelerate debt maturities, or impair Alcoa’s ability to obtain additional financing or satisfy its obligations. See Part I Item 1 of this Form 10-Q in Note J to the Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information.
Any of these factors could adversely affect Alcoa’s financial condition, results of operations, cash flows, or credit profile.